As much as we're loving our current system(s), we need to let reality sit in, and get ready for the next set of consoles soon.
The Xbox 360 launched in 2005 making it 5 years old (aka the average life cycle for a console), and next year's line up of games is looking pretty grim. Which leads me to believe their going to try and live off of 3rd party support and Kinect until their ready to show their new console.
So what should we realistically expect from the console.
In all honesty I don't think Microsoft is going to try and blow us away hardware wise this gen. Both Microsoft and Sony have seen Nintendo's success, and Microsoft will want that same success for themselves. Sony is no longer Microsoft's target, Nintendo is. And ultimately I think that may be a huge mistake to make, but nevertheless here's what to expect from Microsoft.
CPU: MS will go with a multi-core CPU. The next generation of consoles will do much more than gaming as this gen already does, and MS will want to stay competitive in this regard and a multi-core processor will be perfect for the job. To keep things inexpensive Microsoft will most likely use a custom designed Quad Core processor by IBM (here's hoping to a 6 core processor).
Price: $125
GPU: MS will use ATI once again, to design a custom dedicated graphics card sporting 1GB of DDR3 RAM specifically for the card. This will be enough to move console graphics forward, without spending a fortune.
Price: $80
RAM: This is going to be the toughest choice. They're going to use DDR3 RAM, but the decision they'll have to make is to use 2GB or 4GB. If they use 4GB they won't be completely outclassed by the PS4, but the price of their console will be higher to produce than they want. But if they use 2GB it'll be more cost efficient, but the PS4 will outclass it. 3GB would probably be their best bet, and even though it's a completely odd number to use that may be the direction they go.
Price:
2GB: $40
3GB: $70
4GB: $100
Storage: Will the new console use Blu Ray, HD DVD, Dual layer DVD, SD cards, or digital download only? DVD is out of the question by now, and a couple Blu Ray disc are being filled by PS3 games, so HD DVD may not be enough either. MS is going to have to use Blu Ray or some high capacity storage media for their next console, because the world isn't ready just yet for a completely download only console.
Price: $60
HDD: The main thing is how much space will be available and whether or not they go proprietary (which I'm sure they will). HDD size should be around 500GB, since I believe they'll allow you to bring over all of your Xbox 360 content by purchasing a cable to sync you HDD to the USB ports, and 500GB should be plenty.
Price: $50
Your Price: $150
Everything else: Well since we have the main components, we just have to figure a price for everything else. The motherboard will be cheap, networking capabilities will be cheap, Audio Video will be cheap, USB 3.0 will be cheap (expect at least 4 ports), etc...
Price: $150
Overall: I'll play it safe here and use the median of the prices. So after adding everything together the 360 specs should be as followed.
CPU: Custom IBM Quad Core 3.2Ghz
GPU: Custom ATI 1GB GPU @ 700 - 900mhz
RAM: 2GB/3GB/4GB DDR3 1333 (I used 3GB for the final total)
HDD: 500GB HDD @ 7200 rpm
Rest:1080p display, 3D display, 7.1 Dolby, etc...
$125 + $80 + $70 + 60 + $50 + $150 = $535
But remember buying in bulk produces discounts so expect MS to get 20% off bringing their total down to.
$428
And with that theoretical information expect the Xbox 720 or whatever MS calls it to launch at.
$399 for a 500GB version
This means they'll be selling each console at a loss of $40 dollars, however, they'll practically break even thanks to Xbox live being $60 a year now (They would break even, because not everyone will buy the $60 subscription some will get every 3 months or every month depending on what they can afford). Which is an ideal position to be in.
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